Let's assume for the moment that, again, Atrios is right about there being money available for candidates beyond the all-important big donors capable of writing big checks.  This assumption is somewhat premised on the idea that the Big Three--Hillary, Obama and Edwards--will be sucking up massive amounts of cash from most of the party's superdonors, leaving mainly the low-dollar scraps for the longer-shot candidates to fight over.

Having worked campaign finance before, I can get behind this assumption.  The Big Three are all going to have proven fundraising databases already up and running (I mean, Hillary has had just about the most successful candidate fundraising effort in history, Edwards has his database from '04, and Obama got so many contributions from around the country that when I researched donor giving histories this past cycle his name showed up more often than anyone but Kerry).

For those not among the Big Three, setting a campaign strategy is going to be a bitch.  Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire are going to be blanketed with the glitz and flash of the top-tier candidates and the ensuing media circus, so breaking through the coverage of those three is likely to be impossible.  The recent Clinton-Obama pie fight is only going to make things tougher for lesser-known candidates, since the media will fall over itself to cover conflict among the Big Three.

What the lesser-known candidates need to do is keep plugging along below the radar, raising enough cash to keep gas in the car, and meeting voters face to face whenever possible.  The press isn't going to offer enough help to any of the likely also-rans to vault any of them into the top tier, so these candidates are going to have to maintain viability through that most difficult and arcane practice, retail politics.

Basically, if you're not one of the top candidates now, your only shot is going to be treading water and hoping that someone else's ship sinks.  The press' salivation over the Obama-Clinton spat is a sign that there's going to be continuing coverage of fighting among the Big Three for the next year.  

During these fights, the lesser-knowns need to pray that either someone is going to end up looking like a jerk and lose support in a critical state, or something is going to come out about one of the Big Three that will create an opening for someone from the lesser-knowns to rise into the top tier.  The Big Three are going to have the best fundraisers, the best communications staffs, and the best strategists working to ensure that they don't screw themselves out of the White House.  The lesser-knowns are going to have to work their asses off and hope that something catapults them onto the national stage if they're going to overcome the massive advantage enjoyed by the Big Three.

There's one other scenario the lesser-knowns should watch for: the entrance of Al Gore.  Right now, Gore is the only figure in America who could enter the Democratic race and completely reshape the field.  He'll win back supporters from all of the Big Three, and likely a hell of a lot of supporters from the lesser-knowns.  While he'll drain more fundraising resources and make staying solvent more difficult, he'll also diffuse the vote enough that, if one of the lesser-knowns gets lucky and has earned enough support in a state where the major candidates have all kept each other from gaining a decisive lead, he could win some critical momentum and have a shot at Convention.

And let's consider one other thing: there's a much better than average chance that this nomination will be undecided going into Convention.  At that point, anyone with any delegates to offer is going to be in a good position to bargain for a spot in the next administration, if not the #2 spot on the ticket.  And if there's enough bad blood among the big names, then an also-ran might just become the next Vice-President.

So what should the Vilsackesque candidates be doing right now?  Shaking hands and kissing babies, trying to stay afloat.  They need to remain acceptable candidates, not burning any bridges or shooting off at the mouth.  Because, at the end of the day, there is realistically nothing that the lesser-known candidates can do to put themselves in the top tier--they need to hope that circumstance will do it for them.  They need to stay in the race and solvent, but beyond that they simply need to remain acceptable to the majority of the party, and maybe, just maybe, a confluence of events will occur that lets them play a critical role at Convention.

I can imagine someone angrily yelling at their monitor right about now, screaming something along the lines of "What about the power of the Netroots that we saw in the '04 cycle to make a candidate top-tier?"  Sadly, we're not going to be the force that decides the '08 nominee.  Do you guys remember what the field looked like in '03 when Dean came on the scene?  Gore had only been out of the running for a few months, and no giant within the party had stepped up to fill the vacuum he left, so we created a giant ourselves.  But look at what's going on already in the '08 race--we've got more giants than you can shake a stick at, and Netroots support is already divided among them.  The only scenario where I see us playing the pivotal role in the Primary is if Gore jumps in very late and we create a national infrastructure for him in a matter of weeks.  But barring that unlikely event, we're probably going to be divided among the various camps, each working for our favorite candidate and hoping that there will be enough goodwill and party unity at the end of the day for us to unite in the General and defeat the Republican nominee.

At the end of the day, this nomination is almost certainly going to go to a household name.  For those candidates that aren't household names, who don't have the infrastructure or resources necessary to slay three giants, this election is going to be about maintaining plausibility and hoping for an opportunity.  And really, that's what Presidential politics is all about--putting yourself in a position where, should the stars align perfectly, you can change the world.  And if they don't align, and you're stuck on the floor instead of the stage at the end of the '08 convention, then you simply have to accept that it wasn't meant to be.

(Cross-Posted at DailyKos)